5.4 Why Corona Virus Antibody Tests are Not Accurate

“We now have at least 90 tests on the market, and we don’t know about the accuracy of the results… Having many inaccurate tests is worse than having no tests at all.”
Dr. Kelly Wroblewski April 16, 2020

Another in-demand approach is to look for antibodies to the corona virus in the blood of patients, a so-called serological test. Antibodies are specific proteins made by the immune system in response to infections. The antibodies detected by serology tests indicate that a person has had an immune response to the Corona Virus, whether symptoms developed from infection or the infection was asymptomatic.

The antibody test is rapid. It can be done in minutes. It is also typically a low cost option (about $10). You basically take a drop of blood and expose it to a test strip. If the test strip turns one color (for example green), then you do not have the antibodies and therefore do not have the corona virus – at least not yet.

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On the other hand, if the test strip turns a different color (for example red), then your immune system has produced antibodies for the corona virus.

Sadly, this “positive” result does not mean that you now have the 2019 version of the corona virus. It could mean you had a similar virus at some point in the past for which your immune system produced antibodies which are now being picked up by the antibody test. So the first problem with making antibody tests widely available is that they will lead to a wave of false positive tests and scare the hell out of millions of people who will then have to be needless quarantined.

These false positive people might even be placed with people who really have the corona virus and wind up becoming infected by the corona virus in the quarantine area. The only winner in the antibody testing scam will be the makers of the antibody tests.

Here are some quotes from a Business Insider article from April 2020:

The UK has provisionally ordered 17.5 million antibody tests as part of plans to roll out so-called "immunity passports" which would allow thousands of people to leave the country's corona virus lock down early and go back to work. However, none of the tests that have been examined by UK scientists have been effective enough to roll out to the general population.

How inaccurate are current antibody tests? Spain was recently forced to return tens of thousands of rapid coronavirus tests from a Chinese company after they were found to be accurate just 30% of the time. Some antibody tests have demonstrated false positives, detecting antibodies to much more common corona viruses (such as are found in the common cold). https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibody-test-g7-leaders-accuracy-covid-19-immunity-passports-2020-4

So, antibody tests can be even less accurate than PCR tests. But it gets worse. Historically, for many years, antibody tests reading positive were taken as a good sign for patients: Their immune system had recognized the virus and defeated it.  Using an antibody test to claim that someone is sick is turning science upside down: a positive test would now mean the patient was ill rather than recovering. I therefore am not a fan of any of the current Corona Virus test methods.

Well, if all of the corona virus tests are unreliable, then what about using the “No Test” option?
Perhaps the darkest secret of Corona virus statistics is that many so-called Corona virus patients never had any positive result from any test. Instead, the doctor just decided the patient had the corona virus based on their symptoms (mainly pneumonia) combined with the fact that they may have been exposed to someone else with the Corona virus at some point in the past (although even this second condition is not really needed since the corona virus is now just about every where). This is called “Presumptive Corona Virus.”

This is one of the reasons why the number of victims in Italy has come into question. They have not tested many people. Yet they have had an unusually high number of Corona virus fatalities. We will review the problems of the corona virus in Italy later when we cover the hospitalization question.

5.3 Why Corona Virus CT Scans are Dangerous

A single chest CT scan is equivalent to 400 normal chest X-rays.

Computed tomography (CT aka CAT scans) of the chest uses special x-ray equipment to examine abnormalities found in other imaging tests and to help diagnose the cause of unexplained cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, fever and other chest symptoms. 

Because PCR scans have not been reliable for the early diagnosis of the Corona Virus, some doctors have advocated using CT scans as a second or even primary source of information. This is because CT scans are already used in hospitals to diagnose pneumonia.

In one study with patients in China, about 60% tested positive with the PCR, but 88% tested positive with chest CT scan. Of the 60% which were confirmed with the PCR method, it was possible to pick up 97% of cases using chest CT alone. This result supports the claim that PCR fails to pick up about 30% to 40% of positive cases (assuming there are no other causes of pneumonia which is not an accurate assumption).

Even more important, when the PCR test was negative, the positive chest CT scan made it possible to pick up approximately 300 more patients who were very likely to have the infection, and 33% of these were thought to have the Corona virus infection. In all, there were about 900 patients with positive chest CT findings, with an average age of 60 years. Just over 300 of them had positive chest CT findings but negative PCR results. Here is a link to the study: https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.2020200642

CT scanning is fast, painless and usually but not always accurate. Unfortunately, CT scans have two major drawbacks. They are very expensive with an average cost of over $2,000. This is just the cost of the test and does not include the other costs of hospitalization.

Also CT scans are very damaging to the cells being targeted because they involve extremely high doses of radiation. A single chest CT scan is equivalent to 400 normal chest X-rays. Sadly, surveys of doctors in the US found that less than 10 percent of them were aware of either the price or the x-ray dosage of CAT scans! https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC548232/

Given that the corona virus is not significantly more dangerous than the common flu for most people, the known damage of a CT scan is almost certain to be greater than the unknown damage from the corona virus.

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Getting the equivalent radiation of 400 X-rays is going to increase the risk of a person getting cancer 10 to 20 years down the road.

This may not be a major issue for someone who is over 80 years old. But it is certainly an issue for someone under 70 years old.

The corona virus is not and never will be a major cause of death in the US. But cancer is and will continue to be one of the two leading causes of death in the US.

At the very least, before people are given a CT scan, they need to be told that the amount of radiation they are exposed to in this test is very high and could eventually cause them to get cancer.

There is another problem with a CT scan which is lack of accuracy. All the test scan reveals is damage to the lower lungs. This damage may be due to the corona virus. But it can also be due to viral pneumonia or even bacterial pneumonia or even be due to cigarette smoking and or air pollution.

Given the known danger of CT scans, I do not think it is a very useful test for the corona virus.

5.2 Why Corona Virus PCR Tests are Not Accurate

Given the revolving door between the CDC and corrupt drug companies, why should any of us believe anything the CDC says about anything?

The FDA stands for the Food and Drug Administration. Fifty years ago, my Organic Chemistry professor at Washington State University said that he had quit working for the FDA because it was so corrupt that he could not morally stand to work their any more. He warned us students that the FDA was completely owned by the drug companies and we could not trust anything the FDA told us either about Food or about Drugs. He spent the entire year teaching us about how various organic chemicals – made by drug manufacturers and approved by the FDA - contributed to cancer inside of human cells. I got an A in that course and I have been extremely skeptical of claims made by drug companies and by the FDA ever since.

The following FDA web page lists 8 different methods for testing for the presence of the corona virus: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations#coronavirus2019

All of these tests on the FDA web page involve a process called PCR which stands for Polymerase Chain Reaction. As noted earlier, media reports refer to the PCR method as the gold standard in viral testing. Here is an example of the glowing praise for this method: “PCR is the gold-standard testing platform for viruses because it’s highly sensitive — it can detect even a tiny amount of virus in a patient sample and is less likely to incorrectly have a negative result.”

Sadly the above statement is not true. PCR viral tests are known to be so insensitive that they are not able to make an accurate determination until several days after a person has been infected. It is common for a person to test negative when they first come into the hospital and continue to be tested negative for several days before there is enough virus in their system to get a positive result.

People need to be told the truth about PCR. You can get a negative result and still have Corona virus. You can also get a positive result and not have the Corona virus!

There are huge problems when laboratory tests incorrectly tell people they are free of the corona virus. Stories in several countries suggest people are having up to six negative results before finally being diagnosed. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763

The biggest problem is that since the corona virus does not have any noticeable symptoms in the majority of infected victims, if a person is told they do not have the corona virus, when they actually do have it, they can go around and infect many more people with the virus.

Another problem is that because the PCR test is not accurate, officials in the epicenter of the epidemic, Hubei province, China, started counting people with symptoms (presumptive Corona virus) rather than using the tests for final confirmation. As a result, nearly 15,000 new “presumptive” corona virus cases were reported on a single day - a quarter of all cases in the epidemic at the time.

The underlying problem with PCR is that it can pick up viral genetic material only if there’s a lot of it floating around. And early in an infection, before someone starts to feel really sick, there’s often not enough genetic material (RNA) to be picked up by the test.

The PCR test may be accurate for people who look really sick. But using it as a screening tool for asymptomatic people is almost worse than using no test at all. A negative test may simply mean that an infection has not developed enough to be detected by the test.

There is also the difficulty of collecting samples. Detection is confirmed by PCR of genes from blood or sputum secretions. These samples are taken from the back of the throat.

Unfortunately, the back of the throat may not have enough of the virus to be picked up in a PCR test even if the patient is already very sick. PCR tests done on throat swab samples taken at the first visit have been shown to be only about 30% to 60% accurate.

There is also the problem of transporting the samples to a qualified PCR laboratory for examination and the time it takes to obtain a result. Here in Washington state, there is a PCR lab at the University of Washington (and likely many more PCR labs elsewhere in the state since this technology is not rocket science). But at least initially, the US CDC required that all PCR samples be shipped to the CDC lab on the East Coast. Why they made this requirement is very difficult to understand because if anything, the results coming out of the University of Washington PCR lab would be more accurate than anything coming from the CDC lab.

To make matters even worse, we now know that the US CDC does not appear to be capable of even doing the test right in the first place. From the very beginning of the CDC PCR testing, there have been huge errors made by the CDC.

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Why the CDC Corona Virus PCR Test failed Verification Tests
Starting on February 5, 2020, the CDC (Centers for Disease Control in the US) rolled out its own PCR tests to all 50 US states after it obtained Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). CDC packaged PCR primers, along with their associated fluorescent probes, into kits that could each be used to process between 700 and 800 samples. There were 200 kits made – meaning even if they worked, they could only be used to test 200 times 700 people or 140,000 people in a nation of 330 million people. The kits were sent to 115 state and local public health labs qualified to run the test (some health departments got two tests – meaning they could only test 700 to 1400 people in their state).

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0206-coronavirus-diagnostic-test-kits.html

As soon as the test kits arrived in the state laboratories, scientists there set about verifying the tests accuracy before giving the tests to the public. Verification involved running known samples of the Corona virus through the test to make sure the PCR test picked up the Corona virus when it should, and did not erroneously count harmless, virus-free samples.

But immediately, within days, a number of those state and local county labs ran into issues. On some test kits, what should have been a negative result came back as a positive result. On other samples, what should have been positive results came back as negative or inconclusive results.

On February 12, the CDC held a press briefing phone call in which the CDC admitted that the problem was the result of a faulty reagent (meaning one or more chemicals in the PCR primer had a significant flaw that rendered the results to be meaningless).

Below is a partial transcript of this February 12 phone call with reporters in which the CDC was forced to admit that there was a big problem with some of their PCR test kits:

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0212-cdc-telebriefing-transcript.html

Reporter Question: Can you say more about what kinds of problems the state labs encountered in validating the tests and why you need to send new reagents?

CDC Answer: In terms of the test problems, it gets a little weedy, but I can give you a little more detail.  When a state gets the test kits, they have to verify that it works. 

And when some states were doing this, we received feedback that they weren’t — that it wasn’t working as expected, specifically some public health labs at states were getting inconclusive results. We think that maybe one of the reagents wasn’t performing consistently, so it’s a long story to say that we think that the issue at the states can be explained by one reagent that isn’t performing as it should consistently and that’s why we are re-manufacturing that reagent.

My comment on the CDC PCR Reagent Fiasco
I have a minor in chemistry and have studied PCR. The idea that a PCR reagent sent from the CDC would not work tells me that quality control at the CDC must be pretty bad. PCR reagents are not that complex and they should work. The fact that the CDC shipped tests with bad reagents is a really big red flag that there is something very wrong at the CDC.

Why weren’t these reagents tested at the CDC before being sent to the states?

Why weren’t the reagents tested by the source suppliers before being sent to the CDC?

Why is the CDC even recommending a Corona virus test that has so many false negatives and false positives?

Why are they posting data on “confirmed corona virus victims” on their website when they know that the data they are posting is extremely inaccurate?

Why did it take a random question from a reporter on a phone call to finally drag the truth out of the CDC?

Given the revolving door between the CDC and corrupt drug companies, why should any of us believe anything the CDC says about anything?

What’s Next?
Now that you have a better idea of why the PCR “Gold Standard” test is virtually worthless, let’s look at some alternative corona virus tests that are now being used.

5.1 Why is the cost of a Corona PCR test so high?

“What we are witnessing here is a corporate crime wave.”
Ralph Nader

Some media reports refer to the PCR test method as the gold standard in viral testing. PCR stands for Polymerase Chain Reaction. It involves taking a small amount of genetic material and then copying it millions of times in a test tube to make it more concentrated and easier to measure. The problem with making copies of copies of copies is that you are also turning any minor errors in the sample into major errors in the final test result.

PCR is useful for some types of studies. It is not very useful for corona virus testing. In keeping with the most important rule of understanding corruption (Follow The Money), we will begin this chapter by looking at why the cost of a PCR Virus test has sky rocketed so much in the past few years.

The cost of a PCR test in 2003 for the SARS virus (which is related to the corona virus) was about $10 to $20. The legal patents on PCR ran out in 2005. So now any lab can use this method. It ought to be dirt cheap. But according to Bloomberg News, the current cost of a Corona virus PCR test over $400. This is despite the fact that the US government has been pumping billions of dollars in corporate welfare into the drug companies. By now, the PCR tests ought to be free given how much money US tax payers have given the drug companies to support their PCR testing addiction.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/ten-minute-coronavirus-test-could-be-game-changer-for-africa

Below is an example of what a PCR Test kit looks like:

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One poor fellow in Florida was charged $3,270 for a hospital visit and a flu test only to find out he did not have the corona virus. So even if the cost of the corona virus test was “free” – in other words paid for by the tax payers instead of paid for by the victim -, you could still wind up paying more than $3,000 for a corona virus PCR test.

A Pennsylvania man was charged $4,000.

A Kansas man was charged $1000 for a 10-minute lab visit.

Even if you have insurance, the average co-pay (aka You Pay) is now over $2000. So if you want a Gold Standard PCR test, then this $10 test is likely to cost you at least $2,000. Welcome to the extremely corrupt US health care system!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-one-should-hesitate-to-seek-treatment-how-much-does-it-cost-to-get-tested-for-coronavirus-the-answer-is-complicated-2020-03-05

It might be worth the price if the test really told you whether or not you had the corona virus. But as we will see in the next section, the PCR test is so inaccurate that it really tells you almost nothing.